It’s hard at this point — Thursday morning — to really call any reactions with the benefit of the snap polls “initial”, but I’ll do my best.
I think it’s true that this was McCain’s best debate from a technical standpoint. He did force Obama to spend more time defending himself than he had in the past, but I think this was ultimately undermined by his general curmudgeonly countenance. As I stated before the debate, I think the aesthetics of the race have begun to crystallize, and McCain’s visible bitterness did nothing to change the momentum. This, I think, is supported not only by the snap polls (Obama wins by roughly 25% margin), but also by this interesting tidbit from a focus group where Republicans and Independents outnumbered Dems 4-1:
In politics it is generally not considered a good sign when voters are laughing at you, not with you. And by the end of the third and last presidential debate, the undecided voters who had gathered in Denver for Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg’s focus group were “audibly snickering” at John McCain’s grimaces, eye-bulging, and repeated references to “Joe the Plumber.”
As far as policy is concerned, it’s exceptionally difficult to gauge how each candidate was able to convey their ideas, or how those were interpreted by the sort of voters who clamor for “more specifics”, but apparently don’t have internet connections. For example, when John McCain says he wants to “lower taxes on seniors tapping their savings accounts,” it sounds perfectly anodyne until you realize it’s primarily an enormous de facto tax cut for the wealthy. But I doubt most low information voters read this blog, and quite to the contrary, probably think, “that sounds like a great idea, but I really have no idea what that means.”
(I’ll also add that while many voters may not understand the complexities of fiscal policy, one issue many voters do understand is health care. When John McCain waxes poetic about the competitive choice offered in the individual insurance market, many people understand that this competition makes good care in many cases prohibitively expensive or simply impossible to get. You’ll notice that whenever Obama talked about health care, the CNN tracker virtually went off the charts.)
Anyway, this is all a long way of saying that the state of the economy and foreign affairs predispose most voters to agreeing with the sound of Obama’s proposals. Voters know the Republicans (despite John McCain’s “I am not George Bush!” line) royally screwed the pooch these last 8 years, and that handing the government to the same party probably isn’t the best solution. So in summation, McCain performed better than he had from a technical standpoint, but ultimately lost by virtue of being a Republican and by ossifying perceptions of his contemptuousness. Talk about bitter.
